Five comp predictions for 2023
Vote on what you think is most likely to happen this year
Here are my predictions for 2023:
Pay transparency laws accelerate. At least 3 more states add new pay range disclosure legislation, such as Illinois, Georgia, and Oregon. Other states will strengthen existing laws or expand from city-only to statewide, such as New Jersey and Wisconsin.
Tech layoffs get much worse. Layoffs.fyi estimates 154k employees impacted in 2022. We see many big tech layoffs in Q1 from companies holding out until after the holidays, like Salesforce. Tech layoffs slow down in the second half, but pick up in other major sectors of the economy. Top tier tech companies continue to market their layoff benefits to protect their employer brands.
Companies begin experimenting with In-Office/Remote pay bands. The shift to remote work and Silicon Valley exodus continues to disrupt the old geo-tier model. Companies try basing salary ranges on whether employees are in-office versus geographic location. An example might be three tiers: In-Office, Hybrid, and Remote, with differentiated salary, stock, and benefits.
Extra days off go the way of the dinosaur. Tougher economic times put an end to rest-and-recharge, mental health, etc., proving my readers wrong. 🙃 We’ll see a few holdouts for Summer Fridays, but the fad will ebb overall.
Choice between cash versus equity goes mainstream. Whatever modest recovery we enjoy, tech valuations will continue to feel low in the bear market and it will still be hard to hire the best software engineers. We will see more big tech companies announce programs for candidates (and employees) to choose comp packages weighted more heavily towards cash or equity as the unrealized gains hangover lingers.
My stretch goal is to get 3 out of 5 predictions correct for 2023.
And we’ll check back to see whether my readers’ top prediction comes true as well.
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